Report to: Development Services Committee                         Date of Meeting: February 3 2009

 

 

SUBJECT:                          Toward a Markham Growth Management Strategy: Opportunities to Accommodate Growth

PREPARED BY:               Policy and Research Division Staff,

                                            Planning and Urban Design Department

 

RECOMMENDATION:

That the report entitled “Toward a Markham Growth Management Strategy: Opportunities to Accommodate Growth”, dated February 3, 2009, be received;

 

And that the Housing Stock Alternatives, as described in the report, emphasising intensification within the Town’s Built Boundary, form the basis for discussion in the proposed public engagement program and for further review;

 

And that the review include comparison of practicable opportunities and means to pursue additional housing intensification and compact urban form;

 

And that the accommodation for future employment growth, described in the report, be combined with the review of housing stock alternatives;

 

And that Staff report back to the Development Services Committee on review and analysis of the housing and employment growth alternatives and responses received to the alternatives though public engagement;

 

And that based on the schedule outlined in the report, including Appendix ‘A’, staff proceed with a public engagement program regarding Council’s Growth Management strategic priority identified in Building Markham’s Future Together, and the preparation of a Town Growth Management Strategy for Council endorsement by June 2009;

 

And that based on the schedule outlined in the report and the anticipated adoption of an amendment to the Regional Official Plan addressing requirements of the Provincial Growth Plan for York Region, to which the Town must conform, that the Minister of Energy and Infrastructure be requested to extend the time frame by the current one year allowable, for adoption of a corresponding amendment to the Town Official Plan;

 

And that Staff be authorized and directed to do all things necessary to give effect to this resolution.

 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

In June 2006, the Province of Ontario approved the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, under the authority of the Places to Grow Act. In November 2007, Council directed that a Growth Management Strategy (GMS) be prepared for Markham, to address, in part, the requirements of the Provincial Growth Plan and the “Planning for Tomorrow” initiative underway by the Region of York.

 

The Region of York has identified a preferred growth scenario for York Region, including growth forecasts for Markham. Based on review of these forecasts, Staff has proposed housing stock and employment growth alternatives to 2031 for further review. The objective of Town Council and staff is to pursue appropriate intensification and compact urban form, limiting the expansion of the Current Settlement Area to the extent practicable.  It is recommended that review of these alternatives identify the implications (eg. servicing and community infrastructure, financial, environmental etc.) of the forecast growth for Markham. These alternatives will also be incorporated into the planned public consultation program, to commence in February 2009.

 

Council has authorized a number of policy initiatives that will contribute to review of the recommended residential and employment growth alternatives, including:

·        Markham Strategic Transportation Plan

·        Master Servicing Study

·        Employment Lands Strategy

·        Parks, Recreation, Culture & Library Master Plan

·        Community Sustainability Plan (Green Print)

·        Financial Analysis

 

These initiatives will be used to provide criteria for a high level evaluation of the preferred housing and employment growth alternatives. This evaluation can be combined with public and stakeholder comment to provide the basis for Council to confirm or refine the alternatives.

 

It is further proposed that the Town request the Province for the current allowable one year extension of the June 2009 deadline, for Official Plan conformity with the Growth Plan. The future preparation of a new Official Plan will be based on Council endorsement of a Growth Management Strategy, still being targeted for June, 2009.

 

FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS:

None at this time.


1. Purpose                     2. Background                      3. Discussion                        4. Financial        

 

5. Others (Environmental, Accessibility, Engage 21st, Affected Units)             6. Attachment(s)

 


PURPOSE:


This report summarizes and builds on a staff presentation regarding growth opportunities for a Markham Growth Management Strategy made to Committee on September 23 2008, and presents formal recommendations to Council for adoption.


 

BACKGROUND:


The Province of Ontario approved the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in June 2006 under the authority of the Places to Grow Act. The Growth Plan establishes policies relating to land use planning in the Greater Golden Horseshoe and the requirements for municipalities to address these polices through amendments to municipal official plans. Required amendments are to be adopted by June 2009.

 

Regional governments are charged with ensuring conformity of local municipal planning with the policies they establish to ensure implementation of the Growth Plan. The Region of York is undertaking a growth management review entitled “Planning for Tomorrow”.  It is common for a municipal Growth Plan conformity exercise to concurrently address conformity with the Greenbelt Plan, a companion Provincial Plan enacted under the Greenbelt Act. Markham is proceeding to concurrently address both Provincial Plans.

 

In November 2007, Council directed that a Growth Management Strategy (GMS) be prepared for Markham. Subsequently, Council has approved undertaking several supporting studies for the GMS, now in progress, or scheduled. Concurrently, Council has approved several other initiatives that will contribute to the development of the GMS.  It is intended that the GMS should be endorsed by Council before June 2009 and will then contribute to the preparation of a new Markham Official Plan. Staff has previously recommended to Council that in light of the fact that some of the Plan’s policies have not been reviewed for a number of years, and the potential for significant amendment to the current Plan in order to achieve conformity with the significant changes in the Provincial and Regional policy regimes, it would be prudent to proceed on the basis of preparing a new Official Plan.

 

Following an extensive public consultation process identified as “Click with Markham” and an update of the bi-annual community survey, Council confirmed six strategic areas of focus for “Building Markham’s Future Together” in March 2008. The Growth Management Strategy will relate to several of these areas, which are also the subject of other specific Town action plans.


 

OPTIONS/ DISCUSSION:


 

1. The policy context for growth management has been established by the Province; growth in York Region and Markham must conform to this context    

1.1 Province of Ontario

To a much greater extent than Markham’s previous growth management exercises, the context for Markham’s current development of a Growth Management Strategy is set in Provincial legislation and policy, and the response to be made by the Region of York to the Provincial policy. The Committee is familiar with Provincial policy initiatives that establish the requirements and controls for managing growth within York Region and the Town. The Provincial controls continue to evolve, and together with the Region’s required conformity exercise, guide and frame municipal response to the Growth Plan. Within this more defined policy context, the Region and Town have continued to work closely to develop what is regarded as a reasonable and consistent policy response.

 

Key Provincial initiatives shaping the Region’s and Town’s response to managing growth include:

·        Places to Grow Act

·        Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe

o       Growth Forecasts

o       Intensification and Density Targets

o       Built Boundary Delineation

o       Urban Growth Centre Policies

o       Strategic Employment Lands Policies

·        Greenbelt Act and Greenbelt Plan

·        Metrolinx Regional Transportation Plan, and related legislation.

 

1.2 Region of York

The Committee has received regular updates from the Region of York regarding their work on developing a response to Provincial growth policy. The Mayor and Regional Councillors have been directly involved in Regional decisions on future growth policy for the Region. On September 9th 2008, the Committee received a presentation from Regional Staff describing the preferred growth scenario identified by Regional Council. This scenario sets the details for the quantum of growth that the Town will need to plan for and manage and some of the emerging parameters governing our response. Some of the key Regional work includes:

·        Region growth management initiative, “Planning for Tomorrow”

o       Area Municipal Growth Assignments

o       Transportation Management Plan

o       Regional Infrastructure & Services Master Plan

o       Regional Natural Heritage System

o       Human Services Plan

o       Community and Fiscal Sustainability

·        Regional Official Plan

 

On January 7 2009, the Region’s Planning and Economic Development Committee recommended that the growth forecasts for York and its local municipalities arising from the Planning for Tomorrow exercise be incorporated into the Regional Official Plan. A presentation on the forecasts was received by the Development Services Committee on January 20 2009. It is intended that the forecasts should be used by the Region and the local municipalities as the basis for ensuring conformity with the Provincial Growth Plan and for long term land use, infrastructure and financial planning.

 

1.3 Town of Markham

At the Town, the context for a Growth Management Strategy (GMS) was established by Council in March of 2008 through confirmation of the strategic areas of focus of “Building Markham’s Future Together” (BMFT) and the Action Plans to implement this initiative. Building Markham’s Future Together Strategic Areas of Focus, include:

1.      Growth Management

2.      Transportation/Transit

3.      Environment

4.      Municipal Services

5.      Parks, Recreation, Culture & Library Master Plan/Public Safety

6.      Diversity

 

A number of Town studies are underway or planned, that will contribute to the development of the GMS. Some of these studies/initiatives fall under the umbrella of a Building Markham’s Future Together (BMFT) area of focus other than Growth Management, but relate to, or inform decisions relating to growth. These studies/initiatives include:

·        Environmental Policy Review: Natural Heritage Network (BMFT -Environment)

·        Intensification Analysis

·        Growth Forecasts Analysis and Growth Opportunities

·        Employment Lands Strategy

·        Agricultural Analysis

·        GMS Public Engagement Program

·        Sustainable Development Guidelines (BMFT -  Environment)

·        Intensification Guidelines

·        Urban Growth Centre and Key Development Area Studies

·        Strategic Transportation Plan (BMFT – Transportation)

·        Master Servicing Study

·        Community Sustainability Plan (Green Print) (BMFT – Environment)

·        Financial Analysis

·        Parks, Recreation, Culture and Library Master Plan (BMFT – Municipal Services)

·        Economic Development Strategy

          

2. Community priorities relating to growth are already being identified       

Through “Click with Markham” linked to “Building Markham’s Future Together”, the Environics Residents Surveys and Markham residents’ responses to the Region’s “Planning for Tomorrow” growth management program it is possible to begin identifying public priorities relating to growth in Markham. The summary below, provides an initial insight into current public priorities relating to growth:

·        address traffic congestion; improve transportation network, transit system;

·        maintain/improve community infrastructure, enhance delivery of services to match pace of growth;

·        develop a financial strategy to sustain balanced growth, community infrastructure, transit and environment funding;

·        intensification is inevitable, but identify appropriate locations and built form suitable to the context; some concern with height and density of residential development, and the need to respect existing neighbourhoods remains;

·        increase protection for natural areas; and

·        ensure that the Green Print addresses more than the natural environment; it should also outline sustainable programs for “going green”.

 

There is broad acceptance of Markham as a growing community, and despite a range of opinion, there appears to be a collective expression of public priority that there needs to be a “long term vision for community growth”.

 

However, to back up this vision for growth, the community wants to know how it will be delivered, and through the implementation of the vision, how the current concerns or priorities regarding growth will be addressed. The concerns and priorities are reflected in the feedback on infrastructure, environment, sustainable operations, good development and perhaps most important, a financial strategy that sustains the delivery of the improvements and services that the community expects, in the context of continuing growth. There will be further opportunity to hear from the public through the Public Engagement Program for the Growth Management Strategy and consultation through other Town initiatives.

 

3.  Parameters for a Markham Growth Management Strategy  

Based on comments and directions to date from the Development Services Committee, the directions established in “Building Markham’s Future Together” and  the review of public priorities, all considered within the policy context established by senior governments, staff has identified parameters for developing a Growth Management Strategy for Markham. These include:

·        define, protect and enhance a Natural Heritage Network;

·        preserve housing in established residential areas; avoid intrusive intensification;

·        direct intensification to priority locations served by rapid transit in Regional Corridors and focus on Urban Growth Centres and Key Development Areas;

·        examine 40% and 60% residential intensification alternatives (ie. higher density residential development within the Built Boundary defined by the Province, combined with compact urban form within the undeveloped portions of the Town’s Current Settlement Area (CSA), limiting extension of the CSA);

·        ensure built form and community design that is appropriate to the context, transit supportive and sustainable;

·        preserve established employment areas; assess opportunities for intensification;

·        maintain Markham’s economic sustainability and competitiveness;

·        identify infrastructure needs, delivery, phasing and funding requirements and address the pace of growth; and

·        identify opportunities and requirements to accommodate growth within and beyond the Current Settlement Area.

 

4. The Region of York has prepared 25 year growth forecasts to 2031 for Markham

The current forecasts for the Town, included in the Regional Official Plan, extend only to 2026; these are for a population of 348000 and an employment of 212000. The current Plan also recognises that there is a need to identify additional urban land in Markham to accommodate the 2026 forecast growth. Extrapolating the 2026 population forecast to 2031 would have meant an estimated 2031 population for the Town of 370000.

 

Markham’s Official Plan (Revised 1987) was last reviewed in terms of forecast Town growth in the mid 80’s and is currently based on a planning horizon extending to 2011. Major amendments to the Plan to accommodate the forecast growth were subsequently adopted in the late 80’s and early 90’s.

 

The proposed forecast growth for Markham is summarized in Figure 1. These forecasts have been prepared by the Region of York under authority of the Provincial Growth Plan and the Regional Official Plan (ROP) and approved by Regional Council for incorporation into the ROP. The Growth Plan assigns forecast growth to the Region, which in turn is responsible for assigning growth to the area municipalities. The 2031 forecast population for Markham increases to 423500. The proposed forecast growth represents approximately 2500 households, 6000 persons and 4100 employees per annum over the 25 year forecast period to 2031.

4.1 Proposed Markham population growth to 2031 represents modest increase in growth currently planned

Comparing the current and proposed population forecasts is useful in assessing the overall change contemplated for Markham. The forecast values in Figure 2 show an overall population increase of 53500 in 2031, the difference between the 2031 forecast  of 370000, based on the current Regional Official Plan (ROP), and the forecast of 423500, proposed by the Region to address the higher growth assignment established by the Province for York Region in the Growth Plan. It is important to recognise however, that over one-third of the increase of 53500 is accounted for in the substantial growth in Markham that already took place prior to 2006. This growth raised the 2006 population value currently included in the ROP from 253000 to a new 2006 population of 272500.

 

Consequently, the difference between the population growth of 151000 over the period from 2006 to 2031 in proposed Region forecast, adds only 34000 more new residents to the current Regional Official Plan forecast growth of 117000 for the same period. Recognising Markham’s significant contribution to York Region’s overall growth to date, and the reliance on municipalities in southern York Region to accommodate forecast growth, a Town population increase of 34000 over that already contemplated, is fairly modest over a period of 25 years. The overall change in Markham’s forecast 2031 population increases the Town’s share of the total forecast 2031 Regional population by 1%.

 

4.2 Recent and proposed growth trends

Figure 3 graphs the growth in population and employment over the period from 1991 to 2031, and compares the overall rates of growth for two time periods before and after 2006. Population increased by 77% in the 15 years before 2006 and is forecast to increase by 55% over the succeeding 25 years from 2006 to 2031. Employment increased by 57% in the period preceding 2006, but is forecast to increase by 72% within the period from 2006 to 2031. For both population and employment, the average annual increase is lower over the 25 year forecast period from 2006 to 2031 than in the preceding 15 years.

 

Figure 4 compares the average rates of growth in each five year period from 1991 to 2031 for population, employment and households. It indicates that the Town has already experienced, in the period before 2006, or is presently experiencing, greater rates of growth than it is forecast to experience over the period to 2031. It also demonstrates an assumed decline in the rates of growth over the forecast period, as provided for in the Regional forecasts.

 

5. Growth is expected to be accommodated in several locations in Markham 

5.1 Settlement Area Evolution   

As a growth municipality, Markham has revised its urban settlement area several times. Figure 5 shows the extent and pattern of change that has occurred in the period since the revision of the Official Plan, 20 years ago, in 1987.

 

The area in light gray shows the urban settlement area as it was at the time of the comprehensive revision of the Official Plan in 1987. The dark grey area is the Parkway Belt West Planning Area. The lands in green were added first, at approximately the same time as the adoption of the Revised Official Plan.

 

A comprehensive study undertaken in the early 1990’s resulted in the addition of the lands in pink via the approval of OPA No. 5 in 1995. This amendment combined external expansion and internal enlargement of the urban settlement area to permit the development of Markham Centre, South Unionville and Galleria. New communities from Cathedral in the west to Box Grove in the east were added adjoining the pre-existing settlement area. Finally, the lands in blue were incorporated in 2003.

 

Previous additions to the settlement area reflect a pattern of adjacent compact extensions, combined with centralised infill. The result has been a very controlled settlement area extension, relying on, and extending as needed, existing services. Concurrently, this approach retained a large contiguous rural area north and east of the settlement area. The approach to distributing growth already employed by Markham is generally consistent with policies established by the Provincial Greenbelt and Growth Plans. 

 

5.2 Looking to the Future to Accommodate Growth

Provincial policy, through the Greenbelt Plan and Growth Plan creates several geographic policy areas that relate to accommodating future growth (Figure 6). These include, the Current Settlement Area (CSA), shown in blue, the lands in the Provincial Greenbelt shown in green, and the remaining lands (the “Whitebelt”), shown in yellow, being those lands not included in either the CSA or the Greenbelt. The bar chart shows the approximate share of each of these three principal areas of the total land in Markham.

 

Within the Current Settlement Area (CSA) the Province has defined the Built Boundary, shown in red. Within the Built Boundary, is the portion of the CSA where future intensification will be measured to contribute to the minimum target of 40% residential intensification in York Region required by the Growth Plan and measured during the period from 2015 to 2031.

 

Outside the Built Boundary, but still within the CSA (primarily within the still- developing portions of OPA No. 5), is the area of land where additional compact greenfield development is already planned, and in many locations, where construction is proceeding. In this area, the Provincial Growth Plan establishes a minimum development density of 50 persons and jobs, per gross hectare. This density has been met or exceeded in many newly developed greenfield areas in Markham.

 

The Provincial Greenbelt, as defined by the Greenbelt Plan, is not intended to accommodate urban growth. The designated Greenbelt accounts for 24% of the total land area of the Town. Current estimates suggest that additional lands, to be identified for environmental protection through the delineation of the Town’s proposed Greenway System, might increase the proportion of lands reserved for the System to approximately 28% of the lands outside the CSA.

The “Whitebelt” is the area outside the Current Settlement Area (CSA), not included in the Provincial Greenbelt, and is the only area, established under Provincial policy, into which the CSA might be extended. The Growth Plan contemplates the potential for urban development on Whitebelt lands, and contains policies governing this potentiality.

 

The Whitebelt lands in Markham comprise one of the three significant Whitebelt locations, established through Provincial policy, within York Region. These areas have been located within the Region in order to protect more sensitive natural features in the provincially defined Greenbelt, including the Oak Ridges Moraine and Rouge Park. The other significant areas of Whitebelt land within York Region are located in the City of Vaughan and the Town of East Gwillimbury.

 

Any extension of the Town’s Current Settlement Area on to lands in the Whitebelt, would be subject to the protection and enhancement of localised natural features and lands within the Town’s Greenway System, being determined through the Town’s Environmental Policy Review. The Whitebelt is estimated to represent about 16% of the land area of the Town.

 

Provincial growth policy, implemented by the policies being developed by the Region, contemplate limits on the amount of forecast growth that might reasonably be expected to be marketed within an existing municipal urban settlement area, taking into account the estimated remaining greenfield potential and the potential for intensification. In considering alternatives for growth, the essential choice in locating growth to meet planning objectives relates to the proportion of growth assigned to the Current Settlement Area, including intensification, and the proportion that might be assigned to an extended settlement area. The objective of Town Council and staff is to pursue appropriate intensification and compact urban form, limiting the expansion of the Current Settlement Area to the extent practicable.

 

5.3 Accommodating Growth Within the Current Settlement Area

A presentation to the Development Services Committee in April 2008 described the approach and method being used to address the potential for intensification in Markham. This work responds to Council’s direction of November 2007 to examine whether the Town could accommodate up to 60% of the growth in residential units after 2015, within the built boundary, inside the Current Settlement Area, as compared to the minimum of 40% identified as the target for York Region in the Growth Plan, or compared to the target of approximately 52% set for Markham by the Region in its preferred growth scenario. The work also looks at the possibility of employment intensification.

 

Staff also arranged meetings with Members of  Councillors, to discuss the approach and obtain specific comments in regard to issues with intensification. One of the outcomes of these discussions has been the initiation of a study to determine the application of the provisions of Section 37 of the Planning Act in regard to density and height bonusing. This study is currently underway and will be the subject of future reports. Recognising that the built form for intensification will be important to acceptance in the community, a separate study dealing with Design Guidelines for Intensification is underway, to address built form issues such as those identified in comments from residents and Councillors.

 

The approach to addressing intensification takes account of the hierarchy of locations identified by the Region relative to urban structure and to the transit planning currently underway by Metrolinx and the Region. Figure 7 displays several areas where intensification is being examined (shown in purple), primarily relative to higher order transit routes serving the Urban Growth Centres and in the Regional Corridors (shown in red) and to existing rail lines (shown in black). Several GO stations already exist; other potential locations for stations will be examined through the Markham Transportation Strategic Plan.

 

It is important to recognize that only certain locations within an area being examined may be identified for intensification, rather than the entire area. Specific studies have, or will, be undertaken for all areas identified for intensification to determine the appropriate amount and location of change and additional development. These area studies and resulting plans will determine the final population and employment targets and appropriate development potential. As well, specific area built form and design guidelines can be expected, ensuring that new development will be appropriate to the context in which it is located.

 

It is also important to note that the areas not identified for residential intensification represent established residential and employment areas to be protected.  Residential intensification is not regarded as necessary or desirable in these areas.

 

In addition to intensification there are those lands within the Current Settlement Area approved for greenfield development. Much of this land is already planned for residential use and some has development approval in place. Significant change in the plans for these lands is not assumed.

 

5.4 Accommodating Growth Beyond the Current Settlement Area   

Among the factors to be considered if accommodating growth beyond the Current Settlement Area are the following:

·        Provincial Greenbelt policies,

·        Regional planning policies,

·        Markham’s Natural Heritage Network and small streams policies,

·        existing uses, such as hamlets, golf courses, cemeteries, 

·        transportation/servicing corridors, 

·        findings from Growth Management Strategy studies,

·        Federal and Provincial orders, regulations and guidelines relating to the Pickering, Airport Site, and,

·        future infrastructure requirements.

 

On November 4th 2008 the Development Services Committee received draft recommendations for a proposed Greenway System for Markham, which includes lands comprising the Natural Heritage Network. Determination of possible lands for an extended Settlement Area would exclude lands in the Greenway System. Recognising that Provincial and municipal policies will combine to define a broader Natural Heritage Network outside the Current Settlement Area (CSA) it is important to be aware that the net land potentially available for development outside the CSA is expected to be considerably less on a concession by concession basis than was previously available inside the CSA, most recently in the area included in OPA No. 5.

 

This circumstance reflects the assignment of lands to the Provincial Greenbelt, lands identified for the Town’s Natural Heritage Network and that some lands (eg cemeteries, golf courses) that are assumed to not be available for development. It is estimated that on average, only about one half the area of each (400ha) concession block might be available for development.

 

6. A preferred alternative to accommodate housing growth is emerging

6.1 Additional Forecast Housing Stock    

Figure 8 distributes the Region’s forecast increase of 62000 dwelling units over the 25 year forecast period by unit type. The first two columns compare the share of the housing stock by unit type in 2006 and 2031. As the percentages indicate, the share of townhouse and apartment units in the stock is forecast to increase whereas the share of single detached units will decrease. This shift is consistent with the requirement for intensification. The third column shows the contribution of each unit type to the overall increase in units. Over the forecast period the share of additional ground related units (single detached, semi-detached and townhouses) will exceed the share of apartments, maintaining diversity in the 2031 housing stock.

 

The shift inherent in the forecast housing stock is consistent with the requirement for intensification, although it represents a significant departure from past market preferences and market performance in Markham. The pursuit of a future housing stock alternative that represents a very different direction in residential growth will present challenges. It will therefore, be important to monitor the performance of the housing market, relative to the policy direction chosen, and to provide for appropriate adjustments, as needed. 

 

6.2  Residential Intensification Target Influences Choice of Residential Growth Alternative

The Committee is familiar with the Growth Plan requirement that a minimum of 40% of all new residential development in York Region, built after 2015, shall be located within the Provincially defined Built Boundary (see Figure 6), within the Current Settlement Area. Regional staff has explained the effect of this requirement on the forecast regional housing stock and that to satisfy this requirement, intensification is differentially distributed across the area municipalities in the Region.

 

To meet the Region’s intensification target, nearly 70% of the Region’s potential “intensification units” are located in the southern three municipalities in York. The share of intensification in these municipalities offsets the reduced potential for intensification in the remaining six area municipalities, in order to achieve the overall average Regional intensification target of a minimum of 40%.

The estimated portion of the units added in Markham between 2015 and 2031 that will contribute to achieving the Region’s intensification target represents approximately 52% of all units forecast to be added in Markham in that period. This compares to the values of 40% and 60% that Council directed staff to examine in November, 2007.

 

In response to Council’s direction, Staff has prepared housing stock alternatives representing 40% and 60% intensification, and a further 55% intensification alternative that is close to the Region’s preferred alternative. The alternatives demonstrate the anticipated variations in the housing stock depending on the intensification assumed.

 

6.3 Comparing the Housing Stock Alternatives

The bar chart in Figure 9 compares estimates of the additional housing stock that would be added between 2006 and 2031 for four residential intensification alternatives. Each housing stock alternative is comprised of three contributing components:

·        housing located on  remaining greenfield lands within the Current Settlement Area;

·        housing from intensification within the Current Settlement Area; and

·        housing located in an extended Settlement Area.

 

The estimate of total housing on greenfield lands is based on current development approvals and is treated as a constant. Most of this housing is well-advanced in terms of development approvals. Based on the Town’s policies guiding these approvals, it also represents compact development, and frequently meets or exceeds the density targets established by the Province in the Growth Plan.

 

 The housing from intensification varies based on the 40% and 60% alternatives authorized by Council (Alternatives 1 and 3, respectively), the Region’s proposal for Markham, which represents 52% (Region of York Preferred Alternative), and Alternative 2, a 55% intensification alternative, similar to the Region’s, but incorporating an adjusted mix of ground-related units, reflecting the mix of the ground-related housing stock in Markham today. The total housing that might be accommodated in an extended Settlement Area varies relative to the number of units generated through the proportion of intensification assumed in each alternative.

 

The percentages on each section of the bars in Figure 9 compare the proportion of unit types in each alternative – singles, semis, townhouses and apartments. For example, Alternative 1 contains 33% single detached and 36% apartments compared to Alternative 3 which contains 24% single detached and 51% apartments.

 

The total units in each alternative represent the number of units needed to achieve the forecast 2031 population for Markham. The target population is determined by applying persons-per-unit values to each unit type to calculate the population estimate. As the intensification percentage increases in the alternatives, the share of apartment units added also increases. Consequently, the total number of units must also increase in order to achieve the population target, to compensate for the increased share of apartment units that deliver less population because of their lower person-per-unit values.

In terms of dwelling type shares, Alternative 2 (55% intensification) is close to the Region’s, while Alternative 1 (40%) has a higher representation of ground-related units contributed from greater reliance on lands in the Whitebelt, and Alternative 3 (60%) has the largest share of apartment units located within the Current Settlement Area.

 

Figure 9 compared the mix of the forecast additional housing stock for each of four intensification alternatives. Figure 10 compares the housing stock mix in 2006, with the mix of the forecast total housing stock in 2031 that would be expected for each alternative. The bars show the composition of the estimated total Markham 2031 housing stock, by unit type.

 

The existing housing stock mix identified for 2006 is based on Town estimates. It shows a mix dominated by ground-related housing forms (singles, semis and townhouses) with single detached housing still the most common form. Estimates for the housing stock in mid 2008 indicate that the shares of each unit type are similar, but with singles having dropped to about 55% of the total units in the Town and apartments having increased to nearly 13%. These changes are consistent with shifts in recent housing construction and the unit type shares reflected in the forecast housing stock alternatives.

 

The housing stock alternatives incorporate assumptions regarding the capacity of the Current Settlement Area (CSA) to accommodate additional housing stock, in terms of potential on remaining greenfield lands and the proportion of the additional stock achieved through intensification. Each alternative therefore, also incorporates a component of additional housing that relies on extending the CSA to incorporate some additional housing in the Whitebelt.

 

Figure 11 compares the four housing alternatives, in terms of the share of additional dwelling units that would be added within the Current Settlement Area, through additional greenfield development plus intensification, and the share added in an extended Settlement Area. The shares located in an extended Settlement Area range from 15% in Alternative 3  to 29% in Alternative 1.

 

Alternative 1 (40% housing intensification) falls short of the Region’s forecasts for Markham. It cannot provide the level of intensification within the Current Settlement Area (CSA) anticipated for the Town. In addition, it would require a larger extension of the CSA to accommodate the higher proportion of ground-related housing. Considering the remaining three alternatives, the total housing stock resulting in 2031 would continue to be predominantly ground-related unit types with an increased share of apartments. For these alternatives, the housing stock that might be added in an extended Settlement Area would not exceed 20% of the total added in the 2006 to 2031 planning period.

 

Based on the three remaining alternatives current estimates suggest that approximately 90% of the total Town 2031 housing stock could be located within the Current Settlement Area, within and beyond the Built Boundary, with the balance in an extended Settlement Area.

 

Under Housing Stock Alternative 2, the mix of units to initially be considered in the Whitebelt would be focussed on the need to address market demand for ground-related housing. It is estimated that these units would only need to constitute 20% of the total additional units added over the planning period to 2031 and would represent only 10% of the total forecast housing units in Markham by 2031.

 

Based on its forecasts for Markham, the Region of York has estimated that the land requirement to accommodate new housing to 2031 in an extended Markham settlement area would be in the order of 610 gross hectares, exclusive of lands identified for environmental protection or other purposes.  The estimate of +/- 610 gross hectares is within the range identified through preliminary work by Town staff.

 

It would be appropriate to assess the housing mix and density assumptions on which this estimate is based, to confirm that the urban form can be compact while still addressing the market need for new ground-related housing, and to determine how possible variation in mix and density might limit the land area required. Staff will report further on this assessment.

 

6.4 Ensuring the preferred housing stock alternative will be viable

6.4.1 Markham’s housing market comprises two distinct groups

Figure 12 illustrates the relationship between the age of household heads (horizontal axis) and occupancy patterns for different unit types within the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area in 2006. There are essentially two main housing markets that need to be addressed by the proposed housing stock, reflecting the two primary demographic groups seeking accommodation in which the markets are based. This pattern would apply to the housing market within Markham as well.

 

The first is the family household group whose housing preferences are predominantly ground-related housing types including single and semi-detached dwellings and townhouses. As shown in Figure 10 ground-related housing comprises almost 90% of the Town’s current (2006) housing stock. The second is the non-family and small family household group, dominated by younger and older singles and couples, whose housing preferences encompass higher density housing, typically offering smaller and less expensive accommodation, and located close to community amenities and transit service. This market is primarily served by apartment dwellings, but might include denser stacked housing forms, which will be the predominant unit types built to address the intensification requirements of the Growth Plan. Family households will continue to dominate the Markham housing market, although there is expected to be an increase in the non-family household market as the Town’s population ages, and the lifestyle and economic arrangements on which new households are based, continue to evolve and diversify.

 

6.4.2 Housing policy must address market demand and supply

The operation of the housing markets significantly influences the extent to which the housing stock can vary from market preferences and remain viable. For example, if the housing mix selected for the Town’s growth strategy incorporates significantly more high density units in order to strive to increase the proportion of units achieved through intensification, but there is no market demand for the increased number of higher density units, they will not be built. There is no economic scenario in which the housing market can be expected to supply housing for which there is no demand. The problem of over-representing the proportion of high density units in the housing mix  is compounded by the fact that even more higher density units are required to achieve a given population forecast, when the number of ground-related units is correspondingly reduced.

 

Concurrently, if the housing stock includes a proportion of ground-related unit types, that effectively restricts the supply relative to purchasers’ demands, they will direct their market interest to other places where the preferred unit types are available. Only to a very limited extent might a choice be made to substitute a higher density unit. Generally, a high density unit can’t offer the same variety or amount of accommodation space, or outdoor amenity space, as a ground-related unit.

 

6.4.3 There is a need to minimize risk in the housing forecast and the revenues generated by housing development

There is risk in forecasting the preferred mix of housing to address future needs of the population inherent in the required assumptions relating to the performance of the housing market.  Risk can be addressed however, by adopting realistic growth policies, through monitoring housing demand and supply, and by ensuring the ability to adjust for differences, if warranted, between the housing stock forecast for policy purposes and the housing stock in which the marketplace demonstrates interest. The difference is more challenging to adjust for, and therefore the risk is greater, in relation to the ground-related housing, because new stock will typically involve the designation of additional settlement area land, infrastructure construction and considerably longer lead times to deliver, once the supply within the current settlement area is developed.

 

Because the development of new housing is relied upon to generate a significant share of the revenue to fund required servicing, transportation and community infrastructure the risk associated with selecting a housing mix extends to planning for a sufficient and sustainable revenue stream. If less revenue is realized than planned for, as the result of the construction of fewer units, it may be necessary to rely on other revenue sources, if available, or to reschedule/postpone planned infrastructure expenditures. There is also risk associated with the amount of development charges revenue generated if the mix of units included in the preferred housing alternative is not realized.

 

As noted in Section 2, the Markham community has identified as priorities the need to:

·        maintain/improve community infrastructure, enhance delivery of services to match pace of growth

·        develop a financial strategy to sustain balanced growth, community infrastructure, transit and environment funding

Within these expressed community priorities, there is an inherent assumption that the growth strategy chosen for the Town will ensure that the revenues required will be available to meet associated expenditures. To ensure that this will be possible it is essential to select as viable a housing mix as possible, and provide for the capability to adjust policies, when warranted, to address housing market conditions.

 

6.4.4 Regional and Town housing policies should be generally consistent

Under the provisions of the Provincial Growth Plan, the Region of York has the authority and responsibility to ensure that the growth assigned to the Region is planned for and achievable. As part of this authority, the Region assigns population growth to each municipality, based on a housing mix intended to accommodate the population and meet related Growth Plan targets. The Region of York is also the approval authority for the Town’s Official Plan.

 

It is therefore regarded as preferable, if not essential, that there should be general consistency between the housing market expectations reflected in the Region and Town housing stock mix for Markham. This increases the potential to coordinate the phasing and pace of growth, infrastructure delivery, and a viable – achievable and defensible – growth strategy.

 

6.5 Preferred Housing Stock Alternative

In regard to the housing forecast for Markham, of the Alternatives examined, Staff prefers Housing Stock Alternative 2. Staff recommends that:

·        recognising that Housing Stock Alternative 1 achieves only 40% housing intensification within the Built Boundary, it does not meet the minimum intensification target for Markham proposed by the Region in their identified preferred growth scenario, and should not be considered further;

·        Housing Stock Alternative 2 (55% housing intensification), reflecting a slightly higher intensification target for Markham than the Region’s preferred alternative (52% housing intensification), should be selected for further review, including the preferred housing mix in an extended Settlement Area. Alternative 2 is forecast to achieve 80% of the housing added up to 2031 within the Current Settlement Area(CSA), and to therefore result in approximately 90% of the Town’s total 2031 housing stock, being accommodated within the CSA;

·        the review of Housing Stock Alternative 2 include comparison of practicable opportunities and means to pursue additional housing intensification and compact urban form; and,

·        the Town should continue to work with the Region in reviewing housing stock alternatives.

 

On this basis, Staff will proceed with further evaluation, with public consultation, as described in Section 11, and with other studies/ initiatives related to the overall growth management exercise.

 

7.  Accommodating Residential Intensification within the Current Settlement Area

7.1 Potential Benefits of Intensification

Intensification, or increasing the density of development within the Town’s current settlement area can occur in a number of ways:

·        through redevelopment of under-utilized lands;

·        infill of vacant lands or spaces between existing buildings;

·        expansion or conversion of existing buildings; and

·        development or redevelopment of large land areas within the Town’s current settlement area (eg. the Markham Centre and Langstaff Gateway lands).

 

Intensification has a number of potential benefits. More compact and intense development within the Town’s Current Settlement Area can:

·        provide for higher density, mixed use and transit supportive development which improves land use efficiency and creates more sustainable communities;

·        reduce reliance on the automobile by providing transit supportive densities which make it more feasible to provide efficient public transit;

·        result in more efficient use of existing infrastructure and reduce expenditures on servicing of new infrastructure in undeveloped areas of the Town;

·        provide for a variety of housing forms to help meet the needs of a diverse and aging population and offer more affordable housing choices; and

·        slow the rate at which land is developed for residential use and reduce development pressures on lands outside of the current settlement area.

 

7.2 Requirement for a Town Intensification Strategy

Under the Provincial Growth Plan, all municipalities must “develop and implement through their official plans and other supporting documents, a strategy and policies to phase in and achieve intensification within their current settlement area.”  For residential intensification, the Growth Plan has established a target requiring that “by the year 2015 and for each year thereafter, a minimum of 40% of all residential development occurring annually within each upper and single tier municipality will be within the built up area.” The Province has defined the built up area, in terms of the “Built Boundary” in each local municipality in York, including Markham.  The built up area forms part of Markham’s Current Settlement Area. The Growth Plan also establishes a minimum density target of 200 people and jobs per hectare by 2031 or earlier, for the provincially designated Urban Growth Centres of Markham Centre and the Richmond Hill/Langstaff Gateway.

 

York Region has endorsed the minimum 40% residential intensification target (Region wide) and the Urban Growth Centre density target as part of the Region’s preferred growth scenario and  identified individual municipal residential intensification assignments based on that scenario (See Section 6.2).  The Region has also developed a framework to guide area municipalities as they complete their own intensification strategies.  This guide to developing area municipal intensification strategies complements the Regional urban structure policies of the Centres and Corridors Strategy and Transit Oriented Development Guidelines.

 

The Growth Plan intensification policies direct municipalities to identify the appropriate type and scale of development in intensification areas. To be effective in shifting new development toward a more intense compact development form, the Provincial intensifi-cation targets must be accompanied by a comprehensive package of supporting policies. 

 

A strategy is necessary to guide Markham’s vision for its intensification areas.   A vision is to create predominantly mixed use, pedestrian friendly, liveable communities that are transit supportive with transit oriented development within the Town’s current settlement area. The strategy must provide overall direction on where intensification should occur, the amount of development that is appropriate, and the anticipated phasing of new development. Details may be subsequently refined in area studies. Intensification must be planned for and guided by Town policies and requirements, and be directed to preferred locations, away from established communities where it is not appropriate.

 

The scope of Markham’s intensification strategy must extend beyond an empirical response to the Growth Plan intensification targets and address other growth plan policies that relate to urban design, built form and the appropriate type and scale of development, sustainable development practices, connectivity which supports transit, walking and cycling activities, a diverse and compatible mix of land uses including employment and residential uses and a range and mix of housing, and community infrastructure to foster complete communities.

 

7.3 Analysis of Intensification Potential

Part of the work toward developing an intensification strategy for Markham includes an analysis to estimate and identify intensification potential for future residential and employment development.  Council has endorsed an intensification analysis that takes into account:

·        community priorities outlined for the Town’s Growth Management Strategy;

·        senior government initiatives for growth management and transit infrastructure;

·        demographic trends such as an aging population and an increased diversity of  households;

·        economic trends and land prices that impact market choices; and

·        typical constraints to intensification including community concerns, urban design     issues and infrastructure service issues.

 

The guiding principles for the Intensification Analysis are:

1.   Redefine the Town’s urban structure to manage intensification within the current settlement area without significantly impacting the Town’s existing structure of low density neighbourhoods.

2.      Intensify and improve the mix of development and direct it to designated centres and corridors which are well served and connected by rapid transit to improve land use efficiency and create more sustainable communities.

3.      Intensification should coincide with the delivery of high order public transit as a reliable form of transportation infrastructure and result in the creation of mixed use, pedestrian friendly, liveable communities that are transit supportive and incorporate sustainable development practices.

4.      Established residential areas, designated employment areas and identified natural features must be protected from inappropriate intensification.

5.      Focus intensification in areas that have a reduced impact on Town infrastructure, or which justify investment in new and sustainable infrastructure.

6.      Intensify development within the Town’s Current Settlement Area and limit land for urban expansion outside of the Town’s Current Settlement Area. 

7.      Create live-work opportunities through mixed use development.

8.      Improve connectivity by providing a street network/public realm that is more conducive to transit, cycling and pedestrian use, to reduce reliance on the automobile as a preferred mode of transportation.

9.      Intensification must be compatible in built form, scale and character to surrounding development, and demonstrate appropriate gradation of density.  

10.  Intensification needs to be appropriate to the area context in which it occurs, the built form of development, its height and density, the change and mix of uses involved, and the relationship of the surrounding community form and function.

 

7.4 Intensification Areas are organized in terms of a hierarchy of locations

The residential component of the intensification analysis takes into account the intensification hierarchy and strategy guide developed by the Region of York, in consultation with local municipalities.  This is a policy regime that encourages allotting density in a hierarchical manner with Regional Centres having the highest intensity of development, followed by Regional Corridors, GO stations, Local Centres and Major Corridors. In addition to this approach the Town’s analysis considers current Town policy areas and study locations for residential intensification and current residential intensification development proposals. The intensification analysis does not consider intensification in established residential areas, identified natural features or residential intensification in designated office and industrial lands.

 

A summary of the residential intensification potential identified in the intensification analysis is outlined below.  Staff will be preparing a separate report outlining in further detail the findings of the analysis as well as a recommended approach for the Town’s intensification strategy.

 

7.5 Where Residential Intensification can be accommodated in Current Settlement Area

The results of the analysis of potential residential intensification opportunities indicate that it would be appropriate to direct a share of the total additional residential units identified in the Regional forecast for Markham to intensification locations. As recommended above, this share would be equivalent to at least 55% of the total units added between 2015 and 2031, a number sufficient to meet the Town’s contribution to the 40% intensification target required to be met by the Region.  Considering the entire planning period from 2006 to 2031, the analysis suggests that the Town could also meet or exceed 55% intensification throughout the whole 25 year period, if the market for higher density housing is sufficiently strong. However, the results also suggest that more of the potential residential intensification opportunities occur later in the forecast period to 2031, and beyond 2031, as the market interest in higher density housing forms is expected to strengthen, over time.

 

Figure 13 depicts the overall context for both residential and employment intensification opportunities within the Town’s current settlement area.  It identifies the current urban settlement boundary in purple and a hierarchy of intensification opportunities categorized as Regional Centres which are also provincially designated Urban Growth Centres in pink, Key Development Areas along Regional Transit Corridors in blue, locations on Major Corridors in green, and Local Centres in orange.  All of these intensification areas are set within the context of the Metrolinx Regional Transportation Infrastructure Plan.

 

Figure 14 identifies that the largest proportion of additional residential intensification units (44%) will be directed to the two Regional Centres of Markham Centre and the Langstaff Gateway. These Urban Growth Centres are planned for the highest concentration and greatest mix of uses in the Region, a range of housing and employment opportunities, and to be a focus for strategic investment in transit. Both of these centres also contain GO stations and have been identified as Mobility Hubs in the Metrolinx Regional Transportation Infrastructure Plan.  In addition to accommodating a significant share of the Provincial residential intensification target requirements, current planning for these provincially designated Urban Growth Centres will exceed the minimum Provincial density target of 200 people and jobs per hectare by 2031.

 

The next largest proportion of residential intensification units (33%) will be directed to Key Development Areas (KDA’s) along the Avenue Seven and Yonge Street Regional Transit Corridors. These KDA’s include Cornell Centre, the Yonge/Steeles Corridor, Commerce Valley/Galleria, Markville, Woodbine/404 and the Yonge North Corridor.  These Regional Corridors are the main arteries of the Regional structure and the preferred routes for higher order rapid transit lines through Markham with a GO station also located at Markville.  The Regional Centres and Key Development Areas, both strongly relate to higher order rapid transit service, and together could accommodate as much as 77% of the identified intensification potential.

 

The balance of additional residential intensification units (23%) is anticipated to occur along the Major Corridors of Markham Road, Steeles Avenue and Kennedy Road, where the adjoining pattern of development can accommodate change, and the Local Centres of Fairtree East-Parkview Centre, Milliken Centre, Thornhill Centre, Cathedraltown Centre and Cornell North Centre, which contain a mix of activities like Regional Centres but on a smaller scale and serving the adjacent community.  Both the Major Corridors and Local Centres are served by local transit and in some cases contain GO stations.

 

7.6 Other Considerations in Accommodating Residential Intensification

A key component of the Town’s intensification analysis and emerging strategy will be the development of principles, guidelines and performance standards for the mid rise and high rise buildings that will accommodate the residential intensification units in terms of their location, placement and separation, orientation, lot coverage and building floorplate area, and measures to address the impact on the public realm and adjacent residential neighbourhoods. Most of the Town’s existing residential neighbourhoods have been established at lower densities and residents want reassurance that new development directed to adjacent intensification areas will be compatible in scale and context.

 

As part of the intensification analysis, Staff has retained a consultant to complete a Built Form, Massing and Height study for select locations identified for potential intensification. Among other things, this study will focus on pedestrian-friendly, transit oriented development  and demonstrate how  policies relating to transition and urban design can be introduced in the Town’s secondary plan studies to ensure that new development adjacent to existing neighbourhoods respects the character and scale of the neighbourhood.  Intensification projects also often demand a flexible, site-specific response to implement principles of good urban design and planning of streets. Therefore,   the study will highlight any potential conflict with Region and Town standards, practices and by-laws that may need to be addressed. 

 

The Built Form, Massing and Height Study will complement work already underway on Secondary Plans, urban design guidelines, and open space/public realm master plans across the Town at various locations such as Markham Centre, Langstaff, Cornell Centre, and the Yonge/Steeles Corridor.

 

Increasing population density in intensification areas must be coupled with public infrastructure that can accommodate the increased activities of residents and ensure sufficient amenity space is provided. A further study has been initiated to determine appropriate applications of the provisions of Section 37 of the Planning Act to secure a range of public benefits in return for increased height and/or density.  Among other things, the study will determine when a bonus density can be applied, how to assess (place value on) the increase in density or height, and what services and facilities and other matters should be secured, over and above the services and facilities that are the result of the bonus density.

 

8. Forecast growth in employment for Markham is significant

The Regional forecast for employment growth in Markham proposes an increase of almost 104000 jobs over the 25 year forecast period. The forecast is broken down into 3 main categories of employment: Major Office, Employment Land and Population Related Employment. Figure 15, which shows the breakdown of the forecast into these categories, also shows that the shares of each category are approximately equal in 2006.

 

The forecast incorporates the largest share increase of 40% for Major Office Employment (MOE). This translates into Markham attaining almost 70% of all MOE growth within the Region as a whole, over the forecast period. The high proportion of employment growth in this category reflects the Town’s historic strength as a large office centre and an expectation that the Town will continue to attract and accommodate large scale office developments at strategic locations. This significant increase in MOE is consistent with the Town’s objectives for the Markham Centre and the Langstaff Gateway Urban Growth Centres, Key Development Areas that include large concentrations of business park employment and the objectives of the Town’s Competitiveness Strategy.

 

The increase in Employment Land Employment (ELE) is sufficient to maintain the share of the category in the total Town employment at about 35%.The increase in Population Related Employment (PRE) (25%) is more modest than the other categories and results in a reduced share of the total Town employment.

 

Taking account of the forecast employment growth for Markham, the recommendations of the Competitiveness Strategy, and provisions of the Provincial Growth Plan, several key parameters can be identified for planning for employment in Markham. These include:

·        preserve established business park lands consistent with the intent of the employment area provisions of the Growth Plan, with attention to:

o       determining opportunities for appropriate redevelopment/intensification;

o       prohibiting conversion of primary industrial lands to other uses; and

o       ensuring that the primary planned functions of industrial lands take precedence over secondary functions and that land use policies are structured to achieve this result;

·        direct office intensification to locations served by higher order transit; focus on Urban Growth Centres, Key Development Areas, Regional Corridors;

·        retain and replace retail/service jobs in the redevelopment of retail lands;

·        identify opportunities and requirements to accommodate employment within and beyond the Current Settlement Area; and

·        “employment first” as a policy in any consideration of extension of the Current Settlement Area

 

8.1 Accommodating Employment Growth

Considering the employment forecasts, the identified parameters, and estimates of the potential to accommodate employment through greenfield development and intensification, staff has concluded the following:

 

Major Office Employment (MOE)

·        growth in MOE should be directed to Urban Growth Centres  and Key Development Areas on Regional Corridors and established business parks

·        land is available within the Current Settlement Area to accommodate most if not all MOE growth, if this choice is made

Employment Land Employment (ELE)

·        some infill/redevelopment of low intensity lands is possible, but should only occur on the basis of no conversion to non-industrial or non-office uses

·        intensification may accommodate office uses at key locations

·        some land within Current Settlement Area (CSA) is available to accommodate ELE growth, however, the use of all of this land for ELE is unlikely, given the need to accommodate MOE at key locations and the existing permissions for non-ELE uses available under current policies and zoning

·        extension of the CSA at appropriate locations for new business parks to accommodate some of the growth in ELE will be required; the requirements for such extension must be given first priority in any consideration of extending the CSA; long term protection for strategic employment lands must also be incorporated into any CSA extension.

 

 

 

 

Population-Related Employment (PRE)

·        institutional employment (primarily schools and worship related) will continue to locate primarily in residential areas close to the population served; other types of institutional employment should be encouraged to be accessible to rapid transit

·        work-at-home employment will continue to contribute to PRE

·        retail employment should be directed to new retail projects, and incorporated,  if necessary by mandate, in mixed use projects especially where residential intensification is to be permitted

·        in cases where redevelopment involves existing retail sites serving local communities, the retail jobs and functions should be preserved to deter the loss of retail function to the communities

·        retail and service uses should have locations and be of a scale to serve Markham residents and businesses, rather than regional markets

·        some land within Current Settlement Area (CSA) is available to accommodate some PRE growth; additional land will be needed if the CSA is extended

 

These conclusions can be regarded as preliminary and should be reviewed as part of the Employment Lands Strategy, currently being undertaken.

 

Compared to forecasting for housing, the restrictions inherent in the employment forecasts and the limits imposed by the available land supply, result in relatively little flexibility in developing a strategy to accommodate employment growth. This circum-stance favours pursuit of a single alternative to accommodate forecast employment, coupled with an “employment first” principle in any settlement area extension.

 

Analysis by staff suggests that most, if not all Major Office Employment (MOE), can be accommodated within the Current Settlement Area (CSA), unless some MOE is required in an expanded settlement area to maintain employment densities at the minimum specified by the Province. Accounting for land for MOE, the remaining supply of land within the CSA is estimated to be sufficient to accommodate a large proportion of the forecast growth in Employment Land Employment (ELE) and of the estimated growth in the retail component of the Population Related Employment. This estimate assumes some intensification of ELE development to assist in maintaining employment densities, plus the selective intensification of ELE lands with MOE.

 

Current estimates by the Region indicate that it should be possible to accommodate 75% to 80% of the forecast employment growth for Markham, over the period from 2006 to 2031, within the Current Settlement Area.  These estimates are being reviewed as part of the Employment Lands Strategy, currently being undertaken.

 

If this accommodation can be achieved, it is presently estimated that about 90% of the total 2031 employment might be located within the Current Settlement Area, with the balance in an extension of the CSA. These estimates will be reviewed as part of the Employment Lands Strategy.

 

 

Based on its forecasts for Markham, the Region of York has estimated that the land requirement to accommodate both business park and retail employment growth to 2031 in an extended settlement area would be in the order of 560 gross hectares, exclusive of lands identified for environmental protection or other purposes. The estimate of +/- 560 gross hectares is within the range identified through preliminary work by Town staff. The estimate is being examined as part of the work on the Town’s Employment Lands Strategy Study, and will be reported on further by staff.

 

8.2 Recommended Employment Alternative

It is recommended that the accommodation for future employment growth described above be combined with the review of housing stock alternatives, as outlined in Section 6.5.

 

9. Accommodating forecast growth is expected to require land within and beyond the Current Settlement Area

Based on the estimates described above it appears possible that the Town might accommodate in the order of 80% of new growth to 2031 and 90% of the total combined 2031 population and employment within the Current Settlement Area (CSA). The balance of the forecast 2031 population and employment would need to be accommodated by extending the CSA.

 

Figure 16 summarises the possible breakdown of land in Markham that might be anticipated if an extension to the Current Settlement Area is required to accommodate approximately 10% of Markham’s total 2031 population and employment. It is helpful to understand that the amount of land in the Whitebelt that is potentially available for consideration of a possible extension of the Current Settlement Area to accommodate additional population and employment growth, (ie. apart from land within the CSA, land comprising the proposed Greenway System and land devoted to existing uses outside the CSA) amounts to about 11% of the Town’s total land area. Of this 11%, it is estimated that a little less than half, or about 5% of the total land within the Town might be required for an extended settlement area over the 25 year planning period to 2031.

 

Based on its forecasts for Markham, the Region of York has estimated that the land requirement to accommodate residential and employment growth to 2031 in an extended settlement area would be in the order of 1170 gross hectares, exclusive of lands identified for environmental protection or other purposes. Through the proposed further review of housing stock alternatives and the review of employment land requirements through the Employment Lands Strategy Study, staff will address intensification and compact urban form as this relates to limiting the expansion of the Current Settlement Area to the extent practicable.

 

10. The housing and employment growth alternatives should be evaluated relative to other Town initiatives

Council has authorized a number of policy initiatives that can contribute to the evaluation of the residential and employment growth alternatives, including:

·        Markham Strategic Transportation Plan

·        Master Servicing Study

·        Employment Lands Strategy

·        Parks, Recreation, Culture & Library Master Plan

·        Community Sustainability Plan (Green Print)

·        Financial Analysis

 

It is recommended that these initiatives be used to provide criteria for a high level evaluation of the preferred growth alternatives to form the basis for a growth management strategy. This evaluation can be combined with public and stakeholder comment to provide the basis for Council to confirm or refine the alternatives.

 

Staff proposes therefore, to:

·        proceed on the basis of the Markham residential and employment alternatives outlined in this report, including the proposed evaluation;

·        use the Markham alternatives as the basis for initiating the Public Engagement Program for the Growth Management Strategy, as outlined in Section 11;

·        continue to work with the Region of York to refine the Markham alternatives;

·        report back to the Committee on evaluation of the growth alternatives and public response regarding the alternatives; and

·        prepare a draft Growth Management Strategy for Council to endorse by June 2009.

 

11. Public Engagement Program to Commence in February, 2009

In September, 2008, a proposed work program for public engagement around the Growth Management strategic priority of Building Markham’s Future Together (BMFT) was presented to Development Services Committee.  The presentation was made by the Town’s consultant, “DPRA” who have been retained to develop and implement the public engagement program.

 

The objectives of the public engagement program are to:

·        continue the dialogue with the Markham community on the growth management strategic priority initiated in Click with Markham and established in Building Markham’s Future Together (BMFT);

·        engage the public in discussion of a Growth Management Strategy (GMS) in a meaningful way;

·        educate the public on senior government growth policies and planning, opportunities for growth within the Town and their implications;

·        obtain public input/consensus regarding opportunities for growth, and implementation/phasing of growth;

·        establish effective user-friendly means of communicating information regarding the GMS and the planned preparation of a new Official Plan to the public;

·        assist Council and staff at organized meetings with the public;

·        assist in ensuring coordination with various ongoing communication/consultation efforts related to the Town’s six strategic initiatives (BMFT), and

·        keep Council and staff informed about the program.

 

The proposed work program outlined three distinct stages or rounds of public input. The first round of consultation was proposed to be preceded by a launch event which would set the stage for subsequent consultation sessions by providing a high level overview of the context underlying the Growth Management Strategy (GMS).  This high level overview would include emerging global issues which affect planning and growth management, provincial Growth Plan requirements and Region of York growth management work to date, and also how the GMS fits in with Building Markham’s Future Together (BMFT).

 

The proposed engagement program has been revised to reflect the timing and sequence of the Building Markham’s Future Together public consultation initiatives, and the recommendations of the September 23, 2008 staff presentation on growth opportunities, as further refined in this report. In regard to residential intensification, the community dialogues will need to describe housing stock alternatives, and to provide information on, and the opportunity to discuss, practicable opportunities and means to pursue additional housing intensification and compact urban form.  Since the September 2008 presentation regarding the public engagement program for the Growth Management Strategy, there has also been further staff analysis and discussion with the Committee in regard to growth opportunities and alternatives.

 

Based on the foregoing, the engagement program has been revised, and is as follows:

·        Launch event – scheduled for Monday February 9th.  This event will also include an overview of the Transportation Strategic Plan, and will constitute the roll-out session of both the Growth Management and Transportation BMFT strategic initiatives.  A draft agenda for this event is included in Appendix ‘A’.  

 

·        Community Dialogues – to be scheduled over a 3 to 4 week period in late February/early March.  The Community Dialogues will consist of a meeting for each of Markham’s four communities (Markham, Milliken, Thornhill, Unionville) to discuss growth forecasts and alternatives.  These meetings will also include discussion of transportation issues including the Transportation Strategic Plan.

 

·        In addition, meetings will be held with individual stakeholders upon request.  Staff will also present to existing Town committees/groups such as the Markham Centre, Cornell and Main Street Milliken Advisory Groups and the Mayor’s Youth Task Force.   

 

·        Online consultation – in addition to the scheduled meetings, public input will be solicited through the Town web site. 

 

Communications

A number of communications tools will be used to provide information and educate the public regarding the Growth Management Strategy (GMS), including:

·        GMS web page – to be used as a home page for all GMS related reports, notices of public meetings, links to relevant sites, etc.

·        GMS workbook – the workbook will consist of a number of questions to be considered, and is intended to generate and organize discussion in a meaningful way.  The workbook will be handed out at public sessions, and posted on the GMS web page.  

·        Use of public information boards at Town buildings, shopping mall displays etc.

 

A summary of public comment received, will be presented to Development Services Committee as part of an overall GMS update in April.   Further consultation will occur once a draft growth management strategy is developed and brought before Council.

 

12. Markham should request a one year extension to the deadline for conformity with the Provincial Growth Plan

As identified above, municipalities are required by the Places to Grow Act to amend their Official Plans to conform to the Provincial Growth Plan by June 2009. In Markham’s case the Town’s new Official Plan must also conform with the Regional Official Plan (ROP), as amended to conform to the Growth Plan. It is understood that the Region of York is working to a schedule that provides for the preparation of an amendment to the ROP to be available for adoption by the June 2009 deadline.

 

In November, 2008 the Minister of Energy and Infrastructure announced that he would consider deadline extensions for meeting the Growth Plan conformity requirement, of no more than 12 months, for lower-tier municipalities who request one. The Town will require time to consider how the policies of the amended ROP should be incorporated into a new Town Official Plan, to achieve conformity with both the Provincial and Regional growth policies.

 

Staff has proposed to Council that endorsement of a Town Growth Management Strategy by June 2009 is reasonable, and demonstrates the Town’s consideration of senior government growth policy, to be followed by preparation of a new Official Plan. Given that the ROP is not anticipated to be amended until mid 2009, this approach continues to be preferred, but with an extension to the Provincial conformity deadline.


 

FINANCIAL TEMPLATE:


Not applicable.


 


ALIGNMENT WITH STRATEGIC PRIORITIES:

The Growth Management Strategy implements the Growth Management Priority, and addresses both the Transportation/Transit and Environment Priorities established in Building Markham’s Future Together.

 

DEPARTMENTS CONSULTED AND AFFECTED:

Not applicable.

 

 

 

 

 

RECOMMENDED BY:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Valerie Shuttleworth, M.C.I.P., R.P.P.

Director of Planning & Urban Design

 

 

Jim Baird, M.C.I.P., R.P.P.

Commissioner of Development Services


 

ATTACHMENTS:


 

Figures 1 to 16 and Appendix ‘A’ Growth Management Strategy/Markham Transportation Strategic Plan Launch Event

 

Q:\Development\Planning\MISC\MI 510 Growth Management 05-06\Reports\DSC GMS Feb 3 2009 C3D.doc